Bitcoin had a relatively strong week, which helped it end the second quarter with almost 30% gains and trading around $109,000 by July 4th – pretty close to its all-time highs. The price briefly dipped to around $105K midweek following the Senate’s approval of Donald Trump’s massive budget legislation but it was quick to rebound.

Analysts remain split on the short-term outlook: Standard Chartered maintains a positive view with a $200,000 year-end target, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns of a potentail dip to $90K before another rally.

The major political development during this week was the passage of Trump’s $5 trillion legislation “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which makes the 2017 individual tax cuts permanent, lifts the debt ceiling, and rolls back programs such as Medicaid expansion and green energy incentives. After a narrow vote in the Senate on July 1st, the House approved the bill on July 3rd, following a lengthy Democratic nailbiter. Trump is expected to sign the bill on July 4th.

The crypto market reacted with a temporary weakness. However, many see the bill’s inflationary impact, as well as the ballooning US debt as a long-term bullish sign for Bitcoin. Similar fiscal stimulus packages in the past (recall the 2020 COVID relief efforts) led to sharp crypto market rallies. Hence, some analysts believe that this could be a comparable setup.

Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk criticized the bill’s cuts to clean energy and its impact on federal debt. He even went so far to suggest that he might create a third political party in response. Trump, of course, fired back, suggesting Musk could even face deportation, which escalated tensions between both of them.

Other notable developments include the removal of a crypto tax relief amendment, which disappointed miners and stakers. However, the discussions around a US strategic Bitcoin reserve continue to gain moment.

While Bitcoin is currently holding strong, regulatory uncertainty, macro shifts, and political risks remain some of the key variables for the coming weeks.